Enter the Dragon
Dear David,
Our original aim to launch our Private Office in the new year was inevitably thwarted by administrative and regulatory delays over Christmas..
So the timing of the lunar new year this weekend provides another occasion for our debut.
The year of the Dragon is probably a more auspicious time anyway. As I learned last week, “Long”, as this mythical creature is pronounced in mandarin , has more favourable characteristics than the western depiction. The long is a bringer of fortune, health and wealth rather than fire and destruction. No Saint George needed for this dragon.
China’s communist leaders must be hoping for a turnaround and a repeat of the baby boom that occurred 12 years ago. In Chinese culture a baby born in the year of the dragon is believed to be favoured with better luck than its peers. So being born in the year of the snake I wonder if my prospects might have been different had I emerged into this world a year earlier ?
As some commentators have written, China’s economy has stalled and the command economy that propelled unparalleled growth in the past 20 years is proving that the same strategies only work for so long. Faced with an ageing demographic the leadership is discovering that a highly educated youth will need to be satisfied that they have a bright future.
In the post-Covid years investors have found better opportunities in a larger democratic neighbour. Returns on the Indian Bourse topped 20% against -11% In the main China equity market in 2023.
As the Tortoise starts to overtake the hare, President Xi will be looking forward to the arrival of the dragon.
Wishing you a Happy Lunar New Year,
Max
Source: iShares using MSCI Indices in US $
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